Alfreton Town 0–1 Grimsby: Result & Stats

Alfreton Town

FT

0 – 1

Grimsby

J. McAtee 7'

8/3/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3The Impact Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Alfreton Town16%

×Draw24%

Grimsby60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alfreton TownExpected goals in this matchGrimsby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.74

1.70

Alfreton Town

0.74

Grimsby

1.70

Grimsby creates 130% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

0.60

creates per match

1.00

2.40

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Alfreton Town

0.60

Grimsby

1.00

allows per match

Alfreton Town

2.40

Grimsby

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alfreton Town+0.00on par

Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfreton Town ↓

Grimsby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–115%

0–213%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Alfreton Town or draw

40%

Alfreton Town or Grimsby

76%

Draw or Grimsby

84%

Winning margin

Alfreton Town wins by 2+

5%

Grimsby wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Alfreton Town 1+ goals

52%

Alfreton Town 2+ goals

17%

Alfreton Town 3+ goals

4%

Grimsby 1+ goals

82%

Grimsby 2+ goals

51%

Grimsby 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Alfreton Town (draw refunded)

21%

Grimsby (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfreton Town at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfreton Town attack 0.60 + Grimsby defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.74

Grimsby attack 1.00 + Alfreton Town defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Alfreton Town scores more

16%

level

24%

Grimsby scores more

60%

Grimsby at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

J. McAtee

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff