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Alfreton Town vs Derby — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Alfreton Town
Alfreton Town
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Derby
Derby
D. Southwell 51'
F. Preston 13'
S. Robertson 66'
7/26/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3The Impact Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Alfreton Town22%
×Draw23%
Derby55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfreton Town
1.05
Derby
1.82

Derby creates 73% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

creates per match

Alfreton Town
0.60
Derby
1.25

allows per match

Alfreton Town
2.40
Derby
1.50

finishing

Alfreton Town+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfreton Town ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Alfreton Town or draw
45%
Alfreton Town or Derby
77%
Draw or Derby
78%

Winning margin

Alfreton Town wins by 2+
8%
Derby wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Alfreton Town 1+ goals
65%
Alfreton Town 2+ goals
28%
Alfreton Town 3+ goals
9%
Derby 1+ goals
84%
Derby 2+ goals
54%
Derby 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Alfreton Town (draw refunded)
28%
Derby (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfreton Town at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Derby away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfreton Town attack 0.60 + Derby defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.05

Derby attack 1.25 + Alfreton Town defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Alfreton Town scores more
22%
level
23%
Derby scores more
55%

Derby at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
F. Preston
51'
D. Southwell
66'
S. Robertson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alfreton Town vs Derby

Alfreton Town beat Derby 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 26, 2022.

Goals: F. Preston (13'), D. Southwell (51'), S. Robertson (66').

The match was played at The Impact Arena in Alfreton, Derbyshire.