Alfreton Town 1–3 Barnsley: Result & Stats

Alfreton Town

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Barnsley

S. A. Abdul 13'

J. Dyer 72'

M. Watters 52'

J. Earl 28'

7/13/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3The Impact Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Alfreton Town14%

×Draw20%

Barnsley65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alfreton TownExpected goals in this matchBarnsley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

2.01

Alfreton Town

0.80

Barnsley

2.01

Barnsley creates 151% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

0.60

creates per match

1.63

2.40

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Alfreton Town

0.60

Barnsley

1.63

allows per match

Alfreton Town

2.40

Barnsley

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alfreton Town+0.00on par

Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfreton Town ↓

Barnsley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Alfreton Town or draw

35%

Alfreton Town or Barnsley

80%

Draw or Barnsley

86%

Winning margin

Alfreton Town wins by 2+

4%

Barnsley wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Alfreton Town 1+ goals

55%

Alfreton Town 2+ goals

19%

Alfreton Town 3+ goals

5%

Barnsley 1+ goals

87%

Barnsley 2+ goals

59%

Barnsley 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Alfreton Town (draw refunded)

18%

Barnsley (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfreton Town at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfreton Town attack 0.60 + Barnsley defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Barnsley attack 1.63 + Alfreton Town defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Alfreton Town scores more

14%

level

20%

Barnsley scores more

65%

Barnsley at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

28'

52'

72'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alfreton Town vs Barnsley

Barnsley beat Alfreton Town 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 13, 2024.

Goals: S. A. Abdul (13'), J. Earl (28'), M. Watters (52'), J. Dyer (72').

The match was played at The Impact Arena in Alfreton, Derbyshire.

Alfreton Town vs Barnsley — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Alfreton Town vs Barnsley