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Alfredo Salinas vs LOS Caimanes — Segunda División 2018

Alfredo Salinas
Alfredo Salinas
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
LOS Caimanes
LOS Caimanes
8/26/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 21Estadio Municipal de Espinar (Espinar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alfredo Salinas51%
×Draw21%
LOS Caimanes28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfredo Salinas
2.16
LOS Caimanes
1.58

Alfredo Salinas creates 37% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 25 away

creates per match

Alfredo Salinas
1.36
LOS Caimanes
1.16

allows per match

Alfredo Salinas
2.00
LOS Caimanes
2.96

finishing

Alfredo Salinas+0.00on par
LOS Caimanes+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfredo Salinas ↓

LOS Caimanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Alfredo Salinas or draw
72%
Alfredo Salinas or LOS Caimanes
79%
Draw or LOS Caimanes
49%

Winning margin

Alfredo Salinas wins by 2+
30%
LOS Caimanes wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Alfredo Salinas 1+ goals
88%
Alfredo Salinas 2+ goals
63%
Alfredo Salinas 3+ goals
36%
LOS Caimanes 1+ goals
79%
LOS Caimanes 2+ goals
47%
LOS Caimanes 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Alfredo Salinas (draw refunded)
64%
LOS Caimanes (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfredo Salinas at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

LOS Caimanes away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfredo Salinas attack 1.36 + LOS Caimanes defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 2.16

LOS Caimanes attack 1.16 + Alfredo Salinas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Alfredo Salinas scores more
51%
level
21%
LOS Caimanes scores more
28%

Alfredo Salinas at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Alfredo Salinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Alfredo Salinas 5–1 LOS Caimanes

Alfredo Salinas beat LOS Caimanes 5-1 in Segunda División on August 26, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Espinar (Espinar).