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Alfonso Ugarte Puno vs Sport Chavelines Juniors — Segunda División 2018

Alfonso Ugarte Puno
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sport Chavelines Juniors
Sport Chavelines Juniors
5/1/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 5Estadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Alfonso Ugarte Puno55%
×Draw23%
Sport Chavelines Juniors23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfonso Ugarte Puno
1.85
Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.11

Alfonso Ugarte Puno creates 67% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 27 away

creates per match

Alfonso Ugarte Puno
1.84
Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.30

allows per match

Alfonso Ugarte Puno
0.92
Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.85

finishing

Alfonso Ugarte Puno+0.00on par
Sport Chavelines Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfonso Ugarte Puno ↓

Sport Chavelines Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Alfonso Ugarte Puno or draw
77%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno or Sport Chavelines Juniors
77%
Draw or Sport Chavelines Juniors
45%

Winning margin

Alfonso Ugarte Puno wins by 2+
31%
Sport Chavelines Juniors wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 1+ goals
84%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 2+ goals
55%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 3+ goals
28%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 1+ goals
67%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 2+ goals
30%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alfonso Ugarte Puno (draw refunded)
71%
Sport Chavelines Juniors (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfonso Ugarte Puno at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Sport Chavelines Juniors away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfonso Ugarte Puno attack 1.84 + Sport Chavelines Juniors defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.85

Sport Chavelines Juniors attack 1.30 + Alfonso Ugarte Puno defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Alfonso Ugarte Puno scores more
55%
level
23%
Sport Chavelines Juniors scores more
23%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Alfonso Ugarte Puno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Alfonso Ugarte Puno 2–0 Sport Chavelines Juniors

Alfonso Ugarte Puno beat Sport Chavelines Juniors 2-0 in Segunda División on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario in Puno.