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Alfonso Ugarte Puno vs Ayacucho FC — Segunda División 2018

Alfonso Ugarte Puno
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ayacucho FC
Ayacucho FC
9/13/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 24Estádio Modelo de Ilave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Alfonso Ugarte Puno53%
×Draw23%
Ayacucho FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfonso Ugarte Puno
1.85
Ayacucho FC
1.19

Alfonso Ugarte Puno creates 55% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 29 away

creates per match

Alfonso Ugarte Puno
1.84
Ayacucho FC
1.45

allows per match

Alfonso Ugarte Puno
0.92
Ayacucho FC
1.86

finishing

Alfonso Ugarte Puno+0.00on par
Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfonso Ugarte Puno ↓

Ayacucho FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Alfonso Ugarte Puno or draw
76%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno or Ayacucho FC
77%
Draw or Ayacucho FC
47%

Winning margin

Alfonso Ugarte Puno wins by 2+
30%
Ayacucho FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 1+ goals
84%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 2+ goals
55%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 3+ goals
28%
Ayacucho FC 1+ goals
70%
Ayacucho FC 2+ goals
33%
Ayacucho FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Alfonso Ugarte Puno (draw refunded)
68%
Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfonso Ugarte Puno at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Ayacucho FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.86 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfonso Ugarte Puno attack 1.84 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.85

Ayacucho FC attack 1.45 + Alfonso Ugarte Puno defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Alfonso Ugarte Puno scores more
53%
level
23%
Ayacucho FC scores more
24%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Alfonso Ugarte Puno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Alfonso Ugarte Puno 1–1 Ayacucho FC

Alfonso Ugarte Puno and Ayacucho FC drew 1-1 in Segunda División on September 13, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Modelo de Ilave in Ilave.