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Alfaro vs River Ebro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Alfaro
Alfaro
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
River Ebro
River Ebro
3/23/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 26Estadio La Molineta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Alfaro60%
×Draw21%
River Ebro19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfaro
2.07
River Ebro
1.08

Alfaro creates 92% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 93 away

creates per match

Alfaro
2.22
River Ebro
1.09

allows per match

Alfaro
1.07
River Ebro
1.92

finishing

Alfaro+0.00on par
River Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfaro ↓

River Ebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Alfaro or draw
81%
Alfaro or River Ebro
79%
Draw or River Ebro
40%

Winning margin

Alfaro wins by 2+
37%
River Ebro wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Alfaro 1+ goals
87%
Alfaro 2+ goals
61%
Alfaro 3+ goals
34%
River Ebro 1+ goals
66%
River Ebro 2+ goals
29%
River Ebro 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alfaro (draw refunded)
76%
River Ebro (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfaro at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

River Ebro away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfaro attack 2.22 + River Ebro defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.07

River Ebro attack 1.09 + Alfaro defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Alfaro scores more
60%
level
21%
River Ebro scores more
19%

Alfaro at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Alfaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Alfaro 1–2 River Ebro

River Ebro beat Alfaro 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Molineta in Alfaro.