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Alfaro vs Peña Balsamaiso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Alfaro
Alfaro
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Peña Balsamaiso
Peña Balsamaiso
10/15/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 6Estadio La Molineta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Alfaro61%
×Draw21%
Peña Balsamaiso18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfaro
2.06
Peña Balsamaiso
1.02

Alfaro creates 102% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 66 away

creates per match

Alfaro
2.22
Peña Balsamaiso
0.97

allows per match

Alfaro
1.07
Peña Balsamaiso
1.91

finishing

Alfaro+0.00on par
Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfaro ↓

Peña Balsamaiso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Alfaro or draw
82%
Alfaro or Peña Balsamaiso
79%
Draw or Peña Balsamaiso
39%

Winning margin

Alfaro wins by 2+
37%
Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Alfaro 1+ goals
87%
Alfaro 2+ goals
61%
Alfaro 3+ goals
34%
Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals
64%
Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals
27%
Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Alfaro (draw refunded)
77%
Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfaro at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

Peña Balsamaiso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.91 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfaro attack 2.22 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.06

Peña Balsamaiso attack 0.97 + Alfaro defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Alfaro scores more
61%
level
21%
Peña Balsamaiso scores more
18%

Alfaro at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Alfaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alfaro vs Peña Balsamaiso

Alfaro beat Peña Balsamaiso 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Molineta in Alfaro.