Alfaro 1–0 Oyonesa: Result & Stats

Alfaro

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Oyonesa

4/21/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 30Estadio La Molineta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Alfaro49%

×Draw24%

Oyonesa27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlfaroExpected goals in this matchOyonesa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.20

Alfaro

1.71

Oyonesa

1.20

Alfaro creates 43% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 109 away

2.22

creates per match

1.33

1.07

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Alfaro

2.22

Oyonesa

1.33

allows per match

Alfaro

1.07

Oyonesa

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alfaro+0.00on par

Oyonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfaro ↓

Oyonesa →

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Alfaro or draw

73%

Alfaro or Oyonesa

76%

Draw or Oyonesa

51%

Winning margin

Alfaro wins by 2+

26%

Oyonesa wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Alfaro 1+ goals

82%

Alfaro 2+ goals

51%

Alfaro 3+ goals

24%

Oyonesa 1+ goals

70%

Oyonesa 2+ goals

34%

Oyonesa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Alfaro (draw refunded)

65%

Oyonesa (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alfaro at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

Oyonesa away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alfaro attack 2.22 + Oyonesa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.71

Oyonesa attack 1.33 + Alfaro defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Alfaro scores more

49%

level

24%

Oyonesa scores more

27%

Alfaro at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Alfaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff