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Alfaro vs Haro Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Alfaro
Alfaro
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
5/1/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 30Estadio La Molineta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Alfaro58%
×Draw22%
Haro Deportivo19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfaro
1.91
Haro Deportivo
1.00

Alfaro creates 91% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 81 away

creates per match

Alfaro
2.22
Haro Deportivo
0.94

allows per match

Alfaro
1.07
Haro Deportivo
1.60

finishing

Alfaro+0.00on par
Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfaro ↓

Haro Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Alfaro or draw
81%
Alfaro or Haro Deportivo
78%
Draw or Haro Deportivo
42%

Winning margin

Alfaro wins by 2+
34%
Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Alfaro 1+ goals
85%
Alfaro 2+ goals
57%
Alfaro 3+ goals
30%
Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
63%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
26%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Alfaro (draw refunded)
75%
Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfaro at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfaro attack 2.22 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.91

Haro Deportivo attack 0.94 + Alfaro defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Alfaro scores more
58%
level
22%
Haro Deportivo scores more
19%

Alfaro at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Alfaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Alfaro 5–1 Haro Deportivo

Alfaro beat Haro Deportivo 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Molineta in Alfaro.