Alfaro 3–2 Calahorra II: Result & Stats

Alfaro

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Calahorra II

12/29/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 16Estadio La Molineta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Alfaro48%

×Draw24%

Calahorra II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlfaroExpected goals in this matchCalahorra II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.27

Alfaro

1.73

Calahorra II

1.27

Alfaro creates 36% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 90 away

2.22

creates per match

1.48

1.07

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Alfaro

2.22

Calahorra II

1.48

allows per match

Alfaro

1.07

Calahorra II

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alfaro+0.00on par

Calahorra II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfaro ↓

Calahorra II →

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Alfaro or draw

72%

Alfaro or Calahorra II

76%

Draw or Calahorra II

52%

Winning margin

Alfaro wins by 2+

26%

Calahorra II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Alfaro 1+ goals

82%

Alfaro 2+ goals

52%

Alfaro 3+ goals

25%

Calahorra II 1+ goals

72%

Calahorra II 2+ goals

36%

Calahorra II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Alfaro (draw refunded)

63%

Calahorra II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alfaro at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

Calahorra II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.23 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alfaro attack 2.22 + Calahorra II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.73

Calahorra II attack 1.48 + Alfaro defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alfaro scores more

48%

level

24%

Calahorra II scores more

28%

Alfaro at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alfaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff