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Alfaro vs Berceo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Alfaro
Alfaro
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Berceo
Berceo
1/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 17Estadio La Molineta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Alfaro55%
×Draw22%
Berceo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfaro
1.91
Berceo
1.16

Alfaro creates 65% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 111 away

creates per match

Alfaro
2.22
Berceo
1.25

allows per match

Alfaro
1.07
Berceo
1.59

finishing

Alfaro+0.00on par
Berceo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfaro ↓

Berceo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Alfaro or draw
77%
Alfaro or Berceo
78%
Draw or Berceo
45%

Winning margin

Alfaro wins by 2+
32%
Berceo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alfaro 1+ goals
85%
Alfaro 2+ goals
57%
Alfaro 3+ goals
30%
Berceo 1+ goals
69%
Berceo 2+ goals
32%
Berceo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Alfaro (draw refunded)
70%
Berceo (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfaro at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

Berceo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.59 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfaro attack 2.22 + Berceo defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.91

Berceo attack 1.25 + Alfaro defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Alfaro scores more
55%
level
22%
Berceo scores more
23%

Alfaro at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Alfaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alfaro 1 – 0 Berceo

Alfaro beat Berceo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Molineta in Alfaro.