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Alfaro vs Alberite — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Alfaro
Alfaro
CANC
22:00
Alberite
Alberite
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 38Estadio La Molineta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Alfaro69%
×Draw17%
Alberite13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfaro
2.42
Alberite
0.96

Alfaro creates 152% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 46 away

creates per match

Alfaro
2.22
Alberite
0.85

allows per match

Alfaro
1.07
Alberite
2.61

finishing

Alfaro+0.00on par
Alberite+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfaro ↓

Alberite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Alfaro or draw
87%
Alfaro or Alberite
83%
Draw or Alberite
31%

Winning margin

Alfaro wins by 2+
47%
Alberite wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Alfaro 1+ goals
91%
Alfaro 2+ goals
69%
Alfaro 3+ goals
43%
Alberite 1+ goals
62%
Alberite 2+ goals
25%
Alberite 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alfaro (draw refunded)
84%
Alberite (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfaro at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

Alberite away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfaro attack 2.22 + Alberite defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.42

Alberite attack 0.85 + Alfaro defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Alfaro scores more
69%
level
17%
Alberite scores more
13%

Alfaro at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Alfaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Alfaro host Alberite

May 16, 2020: Alfaro take on Alberite in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Alfaro host Alberite at Estadio La Molineta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.