Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alexandria vs Tunari — Liga II 2018

Alexandria
Alexandria
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tunari
Tunari
3/2/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 17Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Alexandria34%
×Draw25%
Tunari41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alexandria
1.30
Tunari
1.46

Tunari creates 12% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 26 away

creates per match

Alexandria
0.75
Tunari
1.08

allows per match

Alexandria
1.83
Tunari
1.85

finishing

Alexandria+0.00on par
Tunari+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alexandria ↓

Tunari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Alexandria or draw
59%
Alexandria or Tunari
75%
Draw or Tunari
66%

Winning margin

Alexandria wins by 2+
15%
Tunari wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Alexandria 1+ goals
73%
Alexandria 2+ goals
37%
Alexandria 3+ goals
14%
Tunari 1+ goals
77%
Tunari 2+ goals
43%
Tunari 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Alexandria (draw refunded)
45%
Tunari (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alexandria at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

Tunari away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alexandria attack 0.75 + Tunari defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.30

Tunari attack 1.08 + Alexandria defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alexandria scores more
34%
level
25%
Tunari scores more
41%

Tunari at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tunari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alexandria vs Tunari

Tunari beat Alexandria 1-0 in Liga II on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Turnu Măgurele.