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Alexandria vs Corvinul Hunedoara — Liga II 2018

Alexandria
Alexandria
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Corvinul Hunedoara
Corvinul Hunedoara
11/11/2023Liga IILiga II · Round 13Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Alexandria21%
×Draw25%
Corvinul Hunedoara54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alexandria
0.88
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.60

Corvinul Hunedoara creates 82% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 42 away

creates per match

Alexandria
0.75
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.38

allows per match

Alexandria
1.83
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.00

finishing

Alexandria+0.00on par
Corvinul Hunedoara+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alexandria ↓

Corvinul Hunedoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alexandria or draw
46%
Alexandria or Corvinul Hunedoara
75%
Draw or Corvinul Hunedoara
79%

Winning margin

Alexandria wins by 2+
7%
Corvinul Hunedoara wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Alexandria 1+ goals
59%
Alexandria 2+ goals
22%
Alexandria 3+ goals
6%
Corvinul Hunedoara 1+ goals
80%
Corvinul Hunedoara 2+ goals
47%
Corvinul Hunedoara 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Alexandria (draw refunded)
28%
Corvinul Hunedoara (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alexandria at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

Corvinul Hunedoara away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alexandria attack 0.75 + Corvinul Hunedoara defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Corvinul Hunedoara attack 1.38 + Alexandria defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Alexandria scores more
21%
level
25%
Corvinul Hunedoara scores more
54%

Corvinul Hunedoara at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Corvinul Hunedoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Alexandria 0–2 Corvinul Hunedoara

Corvinul Hunedoara beat Alexandria 2-0 in Liga II on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Turnu Măgurele.