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Alesves vs Txantrea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Alesves
Alesves
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Txantrea
Txantrea
1/28/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 19Estadio Municipal El Palomar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Alesves33%
×Draw25%
Txantrea41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alesves
1.30
Txantrea
1.48

Txantrea creates 14% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 109 away

creates per match

Alesves
1.00
Txantrea
1.28

allows per match

Alesves
1.69
Txantrea
1.60

finishing

Alesves+0.00on par
Txantrea+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alesves ↓

Txantrea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Alesves or draw
59%
Alesves or Txantrea
75%
Draw or Txantrea
67%

Winning margin

Alesves wins by 2+
15%
Txantrea wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Alesves 1+ goals
73%
Alesves 2+ goals
37%
Alesves 3+ goals
14%
Txantrea 1+ goals
77%
Txantrea 2+ goals
43%
Txantrea 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Alesves (draw refunded)
45%
Txantrea (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alesves at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.69 · 32 matches

Txantrea away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.60 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alesves attack 1.00 + Txantrea defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Txantrea attack 1.28 + Alesves defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alesves scores more
33%
level
25%
Txantrea scores more
41%

Txantrea at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Txantrea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Alesves 2–1 Txantrea

Alesves beat Txantrea 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on January 28, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Palomar in Villafranca.