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Alesves vs Peña Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Alesves
Alesves
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Peña Sport
Peña Sport
9/23/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 3Estadio Municipal El Palomar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Alesves28%
×Draw26%
Peña Sport47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alesves
1.11
Peña Sport
1.53

Peña Sport creates 38% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 93 away

creates per match

Alesves
1.00
Peña Sport
1.38

allows per match

Alesves
1.69
Peña Sport
1.23

finishing

Alesves+0.00on par
Peña Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alesves ↓

Peña Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Alesves or draw
53%
Alesves or Peña Sport
74%
Draw or Peña Sport
72%

Winning margin

Alesves wins by 2+
11%
Peña Sport wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Alesves 1+ goals
67%
Alesves 2+ goals
30%
Alesves 3+ goals
10%
Peña Sport 1+ goals
78%
Peña Sport 2+ goals
45%
Peña Sport 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Alesves (draw refunded)
37%
Peña Sport (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alesves at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.69 · 32 matches

Peña Sport away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alesves attack 1.00 + Peña Sport defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Peña Sport attack 1.38 + Alesves defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Alesves scores more
28%
level
26%
Peña Sport scores more
47%

Peña Sport at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Peña Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Alesves 0–1 Peña Sport

Peña Sport beat Alesves 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on September 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Palomar in Villafranca.