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Alesves vs Oberena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Alesves
Alesves
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oberena
Oberena
3/2/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 23Estadio Municipal El Palomar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Alesves41%
×Draw25%
Oberena34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alesves
1.54
Oberena
1.39

Alesves creates 11% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 49 away

creates per match

Alesves
1.00
Oberena
1.08

allows per match

Alesves
1.69
Oberena
2.08

finishing

Alesves+0.00on par
Oberena+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alesves ↓

Oberena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Alesves or draw
66%
Alesves or Oberena
75%
Draw or Oberena
59%

Winning margin

Alesves wins by 2+
20%
Oberena wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Alesves 1+ goals
79%
Alesves 2+ goals
45%
Alesves 3+ goals
20%
Oberena 1+ goals
75%
Oberena 2+ goals
40%
Oberena 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Alesves (draw refunded)
54%
Oberena (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alesves at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.69 · 32 matches

Oberena away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alesves attack 1.00 + Oberena defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.54

Oberena attack 1.08 + Alesves defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alesves scores more
41%
level
25%
Oberena scores more
34%

Alesves at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alesves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Alesves 1–0 Oberena

Alesves beat Oberena 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Palomar in Villafranca.