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Alesves vs Huarte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Alesves
Alesves
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Huarte
Huarte
2/25/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 23Estadio Municipal El Palomar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Alesves30%
×Draw25%
Huarte44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alesves
1.21
Huarte
1.51

Huarte creates 25% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 108 away

creates per match

Alesves
1.00
Huarte
1.33

allows per match

Alesves
1.69
Huarte
1.41

finishing

Alesves+0.00on par
Huarte+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alesves ↓

Huarte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Alesves or draw
56%
Alesves or Huarte
75%
Draw or Huarte
70%

Winning margin

Alesves wins by 2+
13%
Huarte wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Alesves 1+ goals
70%
Alesves 2+ goals
34%
Alesves 3+ goals
12%
Huarte 1+ goals
78%
Huarte 2+ goals
44%
Huarte 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Alesves (draw refunded)
41%
Huarte (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alesves at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.69 · 32 matches

Huarte away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.41 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alesves attack 1.00 + Huarte defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Huarte attack 1.33 + Alesves defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alesves scores more
30%
level
25%
Huarte scores more
44%

Huarte at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Huarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alesves vs Huarte

Alesves and Huarte drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Palomar in Villafranca.