Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alesves vs Avance Ezcabarte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Alesves
Alesves
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Avance Ezcabarte
Avance Ezcabarte
1/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 18Estadio Municipal El Palomar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Alesves35%
×Draw27%
Avance Ezcabarte39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alesves
1.25
Avance Ezcabarte
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 64 away

creates per match

Alesves
1.00
Avance Ezcabarte
0.97

allows per match

Alesves
1.69
Avance Ezcabarte
1.50

finishing

Alesves+0.00on par
Avance Ezcabarte+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alesves ↓

Avance Ezcabarte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Alesves or draw
61%
Alesves or Avance Ezcabarte
73%
Draw or Avance Ezcabarte
65%

Winning margin

Alesves wins by 2+
15%
Avance Ezcabarte wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Alesves 1+ goals
71%
Alesves 2+ goals
36%
Alesves 3+ goals
13%
Avance Ezcabarte 1+ goals
74%
Avance Ezcabarte 2+ goals
38%
Avance Ezcabarte 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Alesves (draw refunded)
47%
Avance Ezcabarte (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alesves at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.69 · 32 matches

Avance Ezcabarte away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alesves attack 1.00 + Avance Ezcabarte defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Avance Ezcabarte attack 0.97 + Alesves defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Alesves scores more
35%
level
27%
Avance Ezcabarte scores more
39%

Avance Ezcabarte at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Avance Ezcabarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alesves vs Avance Ezcabarte

Alesves and Avance Ezcabarte drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Palomar in Villafranca.