Alessandria 0–1 Vicenza Virtus: Result & Stats

Alessandria

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Vicenza Virtus

S. De Maio 23'

5/6/2022

Serie B · Round 38Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Alessandria39%

×Draw28%

Vicenza Virtus33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlessandriaExpected goals in this matchVicenza Virtus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.11

Alessandria

1.22

Vicenza Virtus

1.11

Alessandria creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 43 away

0.84

creates per match

1.02

1.21

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Alessandria

0.84

Vicenza Virtus

1.02

allows per match

Alessandria

1.21

Vicenza Virtus

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alessandria+0.00on par

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alessandria ↓

Vicenza Virtus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Alessandria or draw

67%

Alessandria or Vicenza Virtus

72%

Draw or Vicenza Virtus

61%

Winning margin

Alessandria wins by 2+

17%

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Alessandria 1+ goals

70%

Alessandria 2+ goals

34%

Alessandria 3+ goals

12%

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals

67%

Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals

30%

Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Alessandria (draw refunded)

54%

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alessandria at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Vicenza Virtus away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alessandria attack 0.84 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.22

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.02 + Alessandria defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Alessandria scores more

39%

level

28%

Vicenza Virtus scores more

33%

Alessandria at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alessandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

S. De Maio

Vicenza Virtus · D

8.3

Match Events

-5'

Lorenzo Crisanto

23'

S. De Maio↳ F. Ranocchia

33'

Davide Diaw

46'

M. Marconi← R. Chiarello

53'

Simone Palombi

53'

Christian Maggio

60'

G. Lunetta← V. Mantovani

60'

T. Milanese← M. Gori

66'

E. Padella← J. Lukaku

70'

Simone Corazza

72'

D. Fabbrini← E. Pierozzi

74'

Luca Parodi

80'

N. Dalmonte← Alessio Da Cruz

80'

J. Greco← F. Ranocchia

82'

A. Ba← F. Casarini

86'

R. Meggiorini← D. Diaw

86'

L. Zonta← M. Cavion

90+4'

Nicola Dalmonte

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlessandriaVicenza

Overview

66%Possession34%

14Total Shots6

4Corners3

8Fouls24

Shots

14Total Shots6

4On Target1

4Off Target4

6Blocked1

7Inside Box4

7Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

448Total Passes241

340Accurate Passes136

76%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls24

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

6Offsides4

Serie B: Alessandria 0–1 Vicenza Virtus

Vicenza Virtus beat Alessandria 1-0 in Serie B on May 6, 2022.

Goals: S. De Maio (23').

Alessandria controlled possession (66%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta in Alessandria.

Alessandria vs Vicenza Virtus — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Alessandria 0–1 Vicenza Virtus