Alessandria 1–0 Nuova Cosenza: Result & Stats

Alessandria

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nuova Cosenza

10/2/2021

Serie B · Round 7Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Alessandria39%

×Draw29%

Nuova Cosenza32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlessandriaExpected goals in this matchNuova Cosenza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.05

Alessandria

1.19

Nuova Cosenza

1.05

Alessandria creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 134 away

0.84

creates per match

0.90

1.21

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Alessandria

0.84

Nuova Cosenza

0.90

allows per match

Alessandria

1.21

Nuova Cosenza

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alessandria+0.00on par

Nuova Cosenza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alessandria ↓

Nuova Cosenza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Alessandria or draw

68%

Alessandria or Nuova Cosenza

71%

Draw or Nuova Cosenza

61%

Winning margin

Alessandria wins by 2+

17%

Nuova Cosenza wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Alessandria 1+ goals

70%

Alessandria 2+ goals

33%

Alessandria 3+ goals

12%

Nuova Cosenza 1+ goals

65%

Nuova Cosenza 2+ goals

28%

Nuova Cosenza 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Alessandria (draw refunded)

55%

Nuova Cosenza (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alessandria at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Nuova Cosenza away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.54 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alessandria attack 0.84 + Nuova Cosenza defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.19

Nuova Cosenza attack 0.90 + Alessandria defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Alessandria scores more

39%

level

29%

Nuova Cosenza scores more

32%

Alessandria at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alessandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff