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Alessandria vs Cremonese — Serie B 2018

Alessandria
Alessandria
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cremonese
Cremonese
11/27/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 14Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Alessandria30%
×Draw29%
Cremonese41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alessandria
1.01
Cremonese
1.22

Cremonese creates 21% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 117 away

creates per match

Alessandria
0.84
Cremonese
1.23

allows per match

Alessandria
1.21
Cremonese
1.19

finishing

Alessandria+0.00on par
Cremonese+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alessandria ↓

Cremonese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alessandria or draw
59%
Alessandria or Cremonese
71%
Draw or Cremonese
70%

Winning margin

Alessandria wins by 2+
11%
Cremonese wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Alessandria 1+ goals
64%
Alessandria 2+ goals
27%
Alessandria 3+ goals
8%
Cremonese 1+ goals
70%
Cremonese 2+ goals
34%
Cremonese 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Alessandria (draw refunded)
43%
Cremonese (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alessandria at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Cremonese away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.19 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alessandria attack 0.84 + Cremonese defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.01

Cremonese attack 1.23 + Alessandria defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alessandria scores more
30%
level
29%
Cremonese scores more
41%

Cremonese at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alessandria vs Cremonese

Alessandria beat Cremonese 1-0 in Serie B on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta in Alessandria.