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Alessandria U19 vs Renate U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Alessandria U19
Alessandria U19
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Renate U19
Renate U19
9/16/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 1Campo A.P.D. Centogrigio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Alessandria U1934%
×Draw24%
Renate U1942%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alessandria U19
1.39
Renate U19
1.58

Renate U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 45 away

creates per match

Alessandria U19
1.33
Renate U19
1.07

allows per match

Alessandria U19
2.09
Renate U19
1.44

finishing

Alessandria U19+0.00on par
Renate U19+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alessandria U19 ↓

Renate U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Alessandria U19 or draw
58%
Alessandria U19 or Renate U19
76%
Draw or Renate U19
66%

Winning margin

Alessandria U19 wins by 2+
15%
Renate U19 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Alessandria U19 1+ goals
75%
Alessandria U19 2+ goals
40%
Alessandria U19 3+ goals
16%
Renate U19 1+ goals
79%
Renate U19 2+ goals
47%
Renate U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Alessandria U19 (draw refunded)
44%
Renate U19 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alessandria U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.09 · 43 matches

Renate U19 away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alessandria U19 attack 1.33 + Renate U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Renate U19 attack 1.07 + Alessandria U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alessandria U19 scores more
34%
level
24%
Renate U19 scores more
42%

Renate U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Renate U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Alessandria U19 0–0 Renate U19

Alessandria U19 and Renate U19 drew 0-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Campo A.P.D. Centogrigio in Alessandria.