Alessandria U19 2–6 Padova U19: Result & Stats

Alessandria U19

FT

2 – 6

Padova U19

12/10/2022

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 12Campo A.P.D. Centogrigio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Alessandria U1938%

×Draw24%

Padova U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alessandria U19Expected goals in this matchPadova U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.53

Alessandria U19

1.54

Padova U19

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 61 away

1.33

creates per match

0.98

2.09

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Alessandria U19

1.33

Padova U19

0.98

allows per match

Alessandria U19

2.09

Padova U19

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alessandria U19+0.00on par

Padova U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alessandria U19 ↓

Padova U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Alessandria U19 or draw

62%

Alessandria U19 or Padova U19

76%

Draw or Padova U19

62%

Winning margin

Alessandria U19 wins by 2+

19%

Padova U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Alessandria U19 1+ goals

79%

Alessandria U19 2+ goals

45%

Alessandria U19 3+ goals

20%

Padova U19 1+ goals

78%

Padova U19 2+ goals

45%

Padova U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Alessandria U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Padova U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alessandria U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.09 · 43 matches

Padova U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.74 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alessandria U19 attack 1.33 + Padova U19 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.54

Padova U19 attack 0.98 + Alessandria U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Alessandria U19 scores more

38%

level

24%

Padova U19 scores more

38%

Alessandria U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Alessandria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff