Alessandria U19 3–1 Crotone U19: Result & Stats

Alessandria U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Crotone U19

5/18/2024

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Relegation Play-offs - FinalsCampo A.P.D. Centogrigio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Alessandria U1943%

×Draw22%

Crotone U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alessandria U19Expected goals in this matchCrotone U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.61

Alessandria U19

1.83

Crotone U19

1.61

Alessandria U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 85 away

1.33

creates per match

1.14

2.09

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Alessandria U19

1.33

Crotone U19

1.14

allows per match

Alessandria U19

2.09

Crotone U19

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alessandria U19+0.00on par

Crotone U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alessandria U19 ↓

Crotone U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Alessandria U19 or draw

66%

Alessandria U19 or Crotone U19

78%

Draw or Crotone U19

57%

Winning margin

Alessandria U19 wins by 2+

23%

Crotone U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Alessandria U19 1+ goals

84%

Alessandria U19 2+ goals

54%

Alessandria U19 3+ goals

28%

Crotone U19 1+ goals

80%

Crotone U19 2+ goals

48%

Crotone U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Alessandria U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Crotone U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alessandria U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.09 · 43 matches

Crotone U19 away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.34 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alessandria U19 attack 1.33 + Crotone U19 defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.83

Crotone U19 attack 1.14 + Alessandria U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alessandria U19 scores more

43%

level

22%

Crotone U19 scores more

34%

Alessandria U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alessandria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff