Alessandria U19 2–1 Como U19: Result & Stats

Alessandria U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Como U19

1/13/2024

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 14Campo A.P.D. Centogrigio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Alessandria U1924%

×Draw21%

Como U1954%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alessandria U19Expected goals in this matchComo U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

2.08

Alessandria U19

1.33

Como U19

2.08

Como U19 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 73 away

1.33

creates per match

2.08

2.09

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Alessandria U19

1.33

Como U19

2.08

allows per match

Alessandria U19

2.09

Como U19

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alessandria U19+0.00on par

Como U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alessandria U19 ↓

Como U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Alessandria U19 or draw

46%

Alessandria U19 or Como U19

79%

Draw or Como U19

76%

Winning margin

Alessandria U19 wins by 2+

10%

Como U19 wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Alessandria U19 1+ goals

74%

Alessandria U19 2+ goals

38%

Alessandria U19 3+ goals

15%

Como U19 1+ goals

87%

Como U19 2+ goals

61%

Como U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Alessandria U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Como U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alessandria U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.09 · 43 matches

Como U19 away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.33 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alessandria U19 attack 1.33 + Como U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Como U19 attack 2.08 + Alessandria U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Alessandria U19 scores more

24%

level

21%

Como U19 scores more

54%

Como U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Como U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff