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Alessandria U19 vs Brescia U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Alessandria U19
Alessandria U19
FT
1 – 2
Brescia U19
Brescia U19
10/2/2021Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 4Campo A.P.D. Centogrigio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Alessandria U1933%
×Draw22%
Brescia U1945%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alessandria U19
1.56
Brescia U19
1.85

Brescia U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 85 away

creates per match

Alessandria U19
1.33
Brescia U19
1.61

allows per match

Alessandria U19
2.09
Brescia U19
1.79

finishing

Alessandria U19+0.00on par
Brescia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alessandria U19 ↓

Brescia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Alessandria U19 or draw
55%
Alessandria U19 or Brescia U19
78%
Draw or Brescia U19
67%

Winning margin

Alessandria U19 wins by 2+
16%
Brescia U19 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Alessandria U19 1+ goals
79%
Alessandria U19 2+ goals
46%
Alessandria U19 3+ goals
21%
Brescia U19 1+ goals
84%
Brescia U19 2+ goals
55%
Brescia U19 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Alessandria U19 (draw refunded)
42%
Brescia U19 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alessandria U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.09 · 43 matches

Brescia U19 away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.79 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alessandria U19 attack 1.33 + Brescia U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.56

Brescia U19 attack 1.61 + Alessandria U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alessandria U19 scores more
33%
level
22%
Brescia U19 scores more
45%

Brescia U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Brescia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Alessandria U19 1–2 Brescia U19

Brescia U19 beat Alessandria U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Campo A.P.D. Centogrigio in Alessandria.