Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alessandria U19 vs AlbinoLeffe U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Alessandria U19
Alessandria U19
FT
0 – 1
AlbinoLeffe U19
AlbinoLeffe U19
11/12/2022Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 9Campo A.P.D. Centogrigio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Alessandria U1937%
×Draw23%
AlbinoLeffe U1940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alessandria U19
1.61
AlbinoLeffe U19
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 63 away

creates per match

Alessandria U19
1.33
AlbinoLeffe U19
1.25

allows per match

Alessandria U19
2.09
AlbinoLeffe U19
1.90

finishing

Alessandria U19+0.00on par
AlbinoLeffe U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alessandria U19 ↓

AlbinoLeffe U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Alessandria U19 or draw
60%
Alessandria U19 or AlbinoLeffe U19
77%
Draw or AlbinoLeffe U19
63%

Winning margin

Alessandria U19 wins by 2+
18%
AlbinoLeffe U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Alessandria U19 1+ goals
80%
Alessandria U19 2+ goals
48%
Alessandria U19 3+ goals
22%
AlbinoLeffe U19 1+ goals
81%
AlbinoLeffe U19 2+ goals
50%
AlbinoLeffe U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Alessandria U19 (draw refunded)
48%
AlbinoLeffe U19 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alessandria U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.09 · 43 matches

AlbinoLeffe U19 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.90 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alessandria U19 attack 1.33 + AlbinoLeffe U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.61

AlbinoLeffe U19 attack 1.25 + Alessandria U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Alessandria U19 scores more
37%
level
23%
AlbinoLeffe U19 scores more
40%

AlbinoLeffe U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AlbinoLeffe U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Alessandria U19 0–1 AlbinoLeffe U19

AlbinoLeffe U19 beat Alessandria U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Campo A.P.D. Centogrigio in Alessandria.