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Alemannia Waldalgesheim vs TuS RW Koblenz — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
TuS RW Koblenz
TuS RW Koblenz
11/18/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 22Stadion an der Waldstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim42%
×Draw24%
TuS RW Koblenz33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.61
TuS RW Koblenz
1.40

Alemannia Waldalgesheim creates 15% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 53 away

creates per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.58
TuS RW Koblenz
1.53

allows per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.27
TuS RW Koblenz
1.64

finishing

Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par
TuS RW Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Waldalgesheim ↓

TuS RW Koblenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Alemannia Waldalgesheim or draw
67%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim or TuS RW Koblenz
76%
Draw or TuS RW Koblenz
58%

Winning margin

Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+
22%
TuS RW Koblenz wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals
80%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals
48%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals
22%
TuS RW Koblenz 1+ goals
75%
TuS RW Koblenz 2+ goals
41%
TuS RW Koblenz 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)
56%
TuS RW Koblenz (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

TuS RW Koblenz away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 1.58 + TuS RW Koblenz defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.61

TuS RW Koblenz attack 1.53 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more
42%
level
24%
TuS RW Koblenz scores more
33%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alemannia Waldalgesheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alemannia Waldalgesheim vs TuS RW Koblenz

Alemannia Waldalgesheim beat TuS RW Koblenz 2-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion an der Waldstraße in Waldalgesheim.