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Alemannia Waldalgesheim vs Pirmasens — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Pirmasens
Pirmasens
4/6/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 30Stadion an der Waldstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim30%
×Draw23%
Pirmasens47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.42
Pirmasens
1.81

Pirmasens creates 27% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 63 away

creates per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.58
Pirmasens
2.35

allows per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.27
Pirmasens
1.25

finishing

Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par
Pirmasens+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Waldalgesheim ↓

Pirmasens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Alemannia Waldalgesheim or draw
53%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim or Pirmasens
77%
Draw or Pirmasens
70%

Winning margin

Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+
14%
Pirmasens wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals
76%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals
41%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals
17%
Pirmasens 1+ goals
84%
Pirmasens 2+ goals
54%
Pirmasens 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)
39%
Pirmasens (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Pirmasens away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 1.58 + Pirmasens defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.42

Pirmasens attack 2.35 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more
30%
level
23%
Pirmasens scores more
47%

Pirmasens at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pirmasens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alemannia Waldalgesheim vs Pirmasens

Alemannia Waldalgesheim and Pirmasens drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion an der Waldstraße in Waldalgesheim.