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Alemannia Waldalgesheim vs Hassia Bingen — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
FT
2 – 0
Hassia Bingen
Hassia Bingen
10/3/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 10Stadion an der Waldstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim45%
×Draw24%
Hassia Bingen31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.66
Hassia Bingen
1.33

Alemannia Waldalgesheim creates 25% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.58
Hassia Bingen
1.40

allows per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.27
Hassia Bingen
1.73

finishing

Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par
Hassia Bingen+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Waldalgesheim ↓

Hassia Bingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Alemannia Waldalgesheim or draw
69%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim or Hassia Bingen
76%
Draw or Hassia Bingen
55%

Winning margin

Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+
23%
Hassia Bingen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals
81%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals
49%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals
23%
Hassia Bingen 1+ goals
74%
Hassia Bingen 2+ goals
38%
Hassia Bingen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)
59%
Hassia Bingen (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Hassia Bingen away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 1.58 + Hassia Bingen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.66

Hassia Bingen attack 1.40 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more
45%
level
24%
Hassia Bingen scores more
31%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alemannia Waldalgesheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2–0 Hassia Bingen

Alemannia Waldalgesheim beat Hassia Bingen 2-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion an der Waldstraße in Waldalgesheim.