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Alemannia Waldalgesheim vs Emmelshausen — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
CANC
14:00
Emmelshausen
Emmelshausen
3/13/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 22Stadion an der Waldstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim56%
×Draw23%
Emmelshausen21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.79
Emmelshausen
1.00

Alemannia Waldalgesheim creates 79% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.58
Emmelshausen
0.73

allows per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.27
Emmelshausen
2.00

finishing

Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par
Emmelshausen+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Waldalgesheim ↓

Emmelshausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Alemannia Waldalgesheim or draw
79%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim or Emmelshausen
77%
Draw or Emmelshausen
44%

Winning margin

Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+
32%
Emmelshausen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals
83%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals
53%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals
26%
Emmelshausen 1+ goals
63%
Emmelshausen 2+ goals
26%
Emmelshausen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)
73%
Emmelshausen (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Emmelshausen away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 1.58 + Emmelshausen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Emmelshausen attack 0.73 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more
56%
level
23%
Emmelshausen scores more
21%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Alemannia Waldalgesheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Alemannia Waldalgesheim host Emmelshausen

March 13, 2021: Alemannia Waldalgesheim take on Emmelshausen in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Alemannia Waldalgesheim host Emmelshausen at Stadion an der Waldstraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.