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Alemannia Waldalgesheim vs Bitburg — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bitburg
Bitburg
5/1/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 34Stadion an der Waldstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim62%
×Draw19%
Bitburg19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
2.34
Bitburg
1.24

Alemannia Waldalgesheim creates 89% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 19 away

creates per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.58
Bitburg
1.21

allows per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.27
Bitburg
3.11

finishing

Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par
Bitburg+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Waldalgesheim ↓

Bitburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Alemannia Waldalgesheim or draw
81%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim or Bitburg
81%
Draw or Bitburg
38%

Winning margin

Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+
39%
Bitburg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals
90%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals
67%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals
41%
Bitburg 1+ goals
71%
Bitburg 2+ goals
35%
Bitburg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)
76%
Bitburg (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Bitburg away — creates 1.21, concedes 3.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 1.58 + Bitburg defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.34

Bitburg attack 1.21 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more
62%
level
19%
Bitburg scores more
19%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Alemannia Waldalgesheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alemannia Waldalgesheim vs Bitburg

Alemannia Waldalgesheim beat Bitburg 4-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion an der Waldstraße in Waldalgesheim.