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Alemannia Aachen vs Vasas — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Alemannia Aachen
Alemannia Aachen
CANC
17:45
Vasas
Vasas
1/19/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Papillon Sports Centre - Field D

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Alemannia Aachen61%
×Draw23%
Vasas16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alemannia Aachen
1.79
Vasas
0.79

Alemannia Aachen creates 127% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Alemannia Aachen
1.33
Vasas
1.25

allows per match

Alemannia Aachen
0.33
Vasas
2.25

finishing

Alemannia Aachen+0.00on par
Vasas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Aachen ↓

Vasas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Alemannia Aachen or draw
84%
Alemannia Aachen or Vasas
77%
Draw or Vasas
39%

Winning margin

Alemannia Aachen wins by 2+
35%
Vasas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Alemannia Aachen 1+ goals
83%
Alemannia Aachen 2+ goals
53%
Alemannia Aachen 3+ goals
26%
Vasas 1+ goals
55%
Vasas 2+ goals
19%
Vasas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Aachen (draw refunded)
79%
Vasas (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Aachen at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Vasas away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Aachen attack 1.33 + Vasas defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.79

Vasas attack 1.25 + Alemannia Aachen defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Alemannia Aachen scores more
61%
level
23%
Vasas scores more
16%

Alemannia Aachen at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Alemannia Aachen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Alemannia Aachen host Vasas

January 19, 2024: Alemannia Aachen take on Vasas in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Alemannia Aachen host Vasas at Papillon Sports Centre - Field D.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.