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Alemannia Aachen vs TVD Velbert — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Alemannia Aachen
Alemannia Aachen
FT
1 – 1
TVD Velbert
TVD Velbert
8/8/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kunstrasenplatz Grün-Weiß Welldorf-Güsten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Alemannia Aachen38%
×Draw32%
TVD Velbert29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alemannia Aachen
1.00
TVD Velbert
0.83

Alemannia Aachen creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Alemannia Aachen
1.33
TVD Velbert
1.33

allows per match

Alemannia Aachen
0.33
TVD Velbert
0.67

finishing

Alemannia Aachen+0.00on par
TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Aachen ↓

TVD Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Alemannia Aachen or draw
71%
Alemannia Aachen or TVD Velbert
68%
Draw or TVD Velbert
62%

Winning margin

Alemannia Aachen wins by 2+
15%
TVD Velbert wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alemannia Aachen 1+ goals
63%
Alemannia Aachen 2+ goals
26%
Alemannia Aachen 3+ goals
8%
TVD Velbert 1+ goals
56%
TVD Velbert 2+ goals
20%
TVD Velbert 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Aachen (draw refunded)
57%
TVD Velbert (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Aachen at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Aachen attack 1.33 + TVD Velbert defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

TVD Velbert attack 1.33 + Alemannia Aachen defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Alemannia Aachen scores more
38%
level
32%
TVD Velbert scores more
29%

Alemannia Aachen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Alemannia Aachen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alemannia Aachen vs TVD Velbert

Alemannia Aachen and TVD Velbert drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 8, 2020.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Grün-Weiß Welldorf-Güsten in Jülich.