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Alemannia Aachen U19 vs Wuppertaler SV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Alemannia Aachen U19
Alemannia Aachen U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Wuppertaler SV U19
Wuppertaler SV U19
10/4/2020U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 1Neuer Tivoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Alemannia Aachen U1949%
×Draw22%
Wuppertaler SV U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alemannia Aachen U19
1.92
Wuppertaler SV U19
1.44

Alemannia Aachen U19 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 32 away

creates per match

Alemannia Aachen U19
1.09
Wuppertaler SV U19
0.81

allows per match

Alemannia Aachen U19
2.07
Wuppertaler SV U19
2.75

finishing

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par
Wuppertaler SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Aachen U19 ↓

Wuppertaler SV U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Alemannia Aachen U19 or draw
71%
Alemannia Aachen U19 or Wuppertaler SV U19
78%
Draw or Wuppertaler SV U19
51%

Winning margin

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+
27%
Wuppertaler SV U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals
85%
Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals
57%
Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals
30%
Wuppertaler SV U19 1+ goals
76%
Wuppertaler SV U19 2+ goals
42%
Wuppertaler SV U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)
63%
Wuppertaler SV U19 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Aachen U19 at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.07 · 57 matches

Wuppertaler SV U19 away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.75 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.09 + Wuppertaler SV U19 defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.92

Wuppertaler SV U19 attack 0.81 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more
49%
level
22%
Wuppertaler SV U19 scores more
29%

Alemannia Aachen U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Alemannia Aachen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alemannia Aachen U19 vs Wuppertaler SV U19

Alemannia Aachen U19 beat Wuppertaler SV U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Neuer Tivoli in Aachen.