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Alemannia Aachen U19 vs Werder Bremen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Alemannia Aachen U19
Alemannia Aachen U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Werder Bremen U19
Werder Bremen U19
3/28/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Alemannia Aachen U1928%
×Draw21%
Werder Bremen U1951%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alemannia Aachen U19
1.52
Werder Bremen U19
2.09

Werder Bremen U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 71 away

creates per match

Alemannia Aachen U19
1.12
Werder Bremen U19
2.21

allows per match

Alemannia Aachen U19
1.98
Werder Bremen U19
1.92

finishing

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par
Werder Bremen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Aachen U19 ↓

Werder Bremen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Alemannia Aachen U19 or draw
49%
Alemannia Aachen U19 or Werder Bremen U19
79%
Draw or Werder Bremen U19
72%

Winning margin

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+
13%
Werder Bremen U19 wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals
78%
Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals
45%
Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals
20%
Werder Bremen U19 1+ goals
88%
Werder Bremen U19 2+ goals
62%
Werder Bremen U19 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)
36%
Werder Bremen U19 (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Aachen U19 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.98 · 58 matches

Werder Bremen U19 away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.92 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.12 + Werder Bremen U19 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.52

Werder Bremen U19 attack 2.21 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more
28%
level
21%
Werder Bremen U19 scores more
51%

Werder Bremen U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Werder Bremen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Alemannia
Werder
C. Wissing
Manager: C. Wissing
C. Makiadi
Manager: C. Makiadi

Alemannia Aachen U19 1 – 2 Werder Bremen U19

Werder Bremen U19 beat Alemannia Aachen U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 28, 2026.