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Alemannia Aachen U19 vs Schalke 04 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Alemannia Aachen U19
Alemannia Aachen U19
CANC
10:00
Schalke 04 U19
Schalke 04 U19
11/29/2020U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 8Sportplatz Breiniger Berg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Alemannia Aachen U1922%
×Draw21%
Schalke 04 U1957%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alemannia Aachen U19
1.17
Schalke 04 U19
2.02

Schalke 04 U19 creates 73% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 67 away

creates per match

Alemannia Aachen U19
1.09
Schalke 04 U19
1.93

allows per match

Alemannia Aachen U19
2.10
Schalke 04 U19
1.24

finishing

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par
Schalke 04 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Aachen U19 ↓

Schalke 04 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Alemannia Aachen U19 or draw
43%
Alemannia Aachen U19 or Schalke 04 U19
79%
Draw or Schalke 04 U19
78%

Winning margin

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+
8%
Schalke 04 U19 wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals
69%
Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals
33%
Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals
11%
Schalke 04 U19 1+ goals
87%
Schalke 04 U19 2+ goals
60%
Schalke 04 U19 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)
28%
Schalke 04 U19 (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Aachen U19 at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.10 · 58 matches

Schalke 04 U19 away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.09 + Schalke 04 U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Schalke 04 U19 attack 1.93 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more
22%
level
21%
Schalke 04 U19 scores more
57%

Schalke 04 U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Schalke 04 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alemannia Aachen U19 face Schalke 04 U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

U19 Bundesliga returns with Alemannia Aachen U19 hosting Schalke 04 U19. Match starts November 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Alemannia Aachen U19 host Schalke 04 U19 at Sportplatz Breiniger Berg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.