Alemannia Aachen U19 3–0 Saarbrücken U19

Alemannia Aachen U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Saarbrücken U19

F. Ademi 90'

F. Türkmen 57'

J. Hoss 33'

2/15/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 3Sportplatz ESV Aachen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Alemannia Aachen U1948%

×Draw21%

Saarbrücken U1930%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alemannia Aachen U19Expected goals in this matchSaarbrücken U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.58

Alemannia Aachen U19

2.04

Saarbrücken U19

1.58

Alemannia Aachen U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 37 away

1.12

creates per match

1.19

1.98

allows per match

2.97

creates per match

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.12

Saarbrücken U19

1.19

allows per match

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.98

Saarbrücken U19

2.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Aachen U19 ↓

Saarbrücken U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Alemannia Aachen U19 or draw

70%

Alemannia Aachen U19 or Saarbrücken U19

79%

Draw or Saarbrücken U19

52%

Winning margin

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+

28%

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals

87%

Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals

60%

Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals

33%

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

79%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

47%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Aachen U19 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.98 · 58 matches

Saarbrücken U19 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.12 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.04

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.19 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more

48%

level

21%

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

30%

Alemannia Aachen U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alemannia Aachen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

46'

57'

68'

76'

L. Strewenski← V. Sahan

78'

D. Franzen← S. Sarar

87'

A. Eglenovic← J. Pollmann

89'

M. Fork← M. Pobric

89'

Y. Selim← Arian Amyn

90'

F. Ademi

Alemannia

Saarbrücken

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Wissing

78'▲D. Franzen←▼S. Sarar

87'▲A. Eglenovic←▼J. Pollmann

89'▲M. Fork←▼M. Pobric

89'▲Y. Selim←▼Arian Amyn

Alemannia Aachen U19 substitutes

FranzenEglenovicForkSelimWolffNeussChekrouni

Manager: S. D`Andrea

46'▲F. Rupp←▼B. Erdogan

68'▲K. Riffel←▼N. Grucza

76'▲L. Strewenski←▼V. Sahan

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

RuppRiffelStrewenskiChanotSchubert

U19 Bundesliga: Alemannia Aachen U19 3–0 Saarbrücken U19

Alemannia Aachen U19 beat Saarbrücken U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 15, 2025.

Goals: J. Hoss (33'), F. Türkmen (57'), F. Ademi (90').

The match was played at Sportplatz ESV Aachen in Aachen.

Alemannia Aachen U19 vs Saarbrücken U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Alemannia Aachen U19 3–0 Saarbrücken U19