Alemannia Aachen U19 1–4 RW Oberhausen U19

Alemannia Aachen U19

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

RW Oberhausen U19

L. Wesemann 18'

K. Skolik 90+2', 6'

A. Özgen 80'

Y. Kazantzidis 26'

4/9/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 15Sportplatz Breiniger Berg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Alemannia Aachen U1938%

×Draw24%

RW Oberhausen U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alemannia Aachen U19Expected goals in this matchRW Oberhausen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.59

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.60

RW Oberhausen U19

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 49 away

1.12

creates per match

1.20

1.98

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.12

RW Oberhausen U19

1.20

allows per match

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.98

RW Oberhausen U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Aachen U19 ↓

RW Oberhausen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Alemannia Aachen U19 or draw

62%

Alemannia Aachen U19 or RW Oberhausen U19

76%

Draw or RW Oberhausen U19

62%

Winning margin

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+

19%

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals

80%

Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals

47%

Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals

22%

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

80%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

47%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)

50%

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Aachen U19 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.98 · 58 matches

RW Oberhausen U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.12 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.60

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.20 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more

38%

level

24%

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

38%

Alemannia Aachen U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Alemannia Aachen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

K. Skolik

18'

L. Wesemann

26'

Y. Kazantzidis

46'

M. Yesilyurt← Pyo Se-Jin

46'

T. Kondziella← B. Petry

57'

D. Sinanoglu← A. Ougandou

57'

J. Mulamba← M. Bank

64'

A. Özgen← Y. Kazantzidis

71'

F. Ljuma

71'

F. Ljuma

73'

L. Kozlyuk← G. Kachala

80'

A. Özgen

82'

K. Harbering← J. Cartus

87'

R. Klinger← B. Bartu

90+2'

K. Skolik

Alemannia

RW

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: S. Eller

46'▲M. Yesilyurt←▼Pyo Se-Jin

46'▲T. Kondziella←▼B. Petry

57'▲D. Sinanoglu←▼A. Ougandou

73'▲L. Kozlyuk←▼G. Kachala

Alemannia Aachen U19 substitutes

YesilyurtKondziellaSinanogluKozlyukColakIvicSteffens

Manager: M. Kaya

57'▲J. Mulamba←▼M. Bank

64'▲A. Özgen←▼Y. Kazantzidis

82'▲K. Harbering←▼J. Cartus

87'▲R. Klinger←▼B. Bartu

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

MulambaÖzgenHarberingKlingerRedamHotWaschkau

Match Recap: Alemannia Aachen U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19

RW Oberhausen U19 beat Alemannia Aachen U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 9, 2022.

Goals: K. Skolik (6', 90+2'), L. Wesemann (18'), Y. Kazantzidis (26'), A. Özgen (80').

The match was played at Sportplatz Breiniger Berg in Rheinland.

Alemannia Aachen U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Alemannia Aachen U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19