Alemannia Aachen U19 0–6 Preußen Münster U19

Alemannia Aachen U19

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Preußen Münster U19

S. Kaba 89'

A. Weber 86'

N. Kloth 83'

M. Schröder 72'

O. Overhoff 37'

D. Tchadjobo 35'

3/5/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 13Sportplatz Breiniger Berg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Alemannia Aachen U1933%

×Draw23%

Preußen Münster U1944%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alemannia Aachen U19Expected goals in this matchPreußen Münster U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.81

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.54

Preußen Münster U19

1.81

Preußen Münster U19 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 60 away

1.12

creates per match

1.65

1.98

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.12

Preußen Münster U19

1.65

allows per match

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.98

Preußen Münster U19

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Aachen U19 ↓

Preußen Münster U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Alemannia Aachen U19 or draw

56%

Alemannia Aachen U19 or Preußen Münster U19

77%

Draw or Preußen Münster U19

67%

Winning margin

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+

16%

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals

79%

Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals

45%

Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals

20%

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

84%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

54%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Aachen U19 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.98 · 58 matches

Preußen Münster U19 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.97 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.12 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.54

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.65 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more

33%

level

23%

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

44%

Preußen Münster U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Preußen Münster U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Y. Eyrice← V. Statovci

35'

D. Tchadjobo

37'

O. Overhoff

46'

J. Zupancic← B. Petry

46'

Pyo Se-Jin← G. Kachala

65'

M. Bena← S. Sarrafyar

65'

S. Becker← T. Hemsing

72'

M. Schröder

73'

A. Weber← O. Overhoff

79'

P. Steffens← D. Sinanoglu

79'

S. Kaba← D. Tchadjobo

83'

N. Kloth

86'

A. Weber

89'

S. Kaba

Alemannia

Preußen

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Overhoff

Keute

▼

Sarrafyar

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Eller

9'▲Y. Eyrice←▼V. Statovci

46'▲J. Zupancic←▼B. Petry

46'▲Pyo Se-Jin←▼G. Kachala

79'▲P. Steffens←▼D. Sinanoglu

Alemannia Aachen U19 substitutes

EyriceZupancicSe-JinSteffensSaidYesilyurt

Manager: A. Barez

65'▲M. Bena←▼S. Sarrafyar

65'▲S. Becker←▼T. Hemsing

73'▲A. Weber←▼O. Overhoff

79'▲S. Kaba←▼D. Tchadjobo

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

BenaBeckerWeberKabaHinterdingÖztürk