Alemannia Aachen U19 0–2 Köln U19: Result & Stats

Alemannia Aachen U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Köln U19

12/7/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 14Sportplatz ESV Aachen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Alemannia Aachen U1920%

×Draw21%

Köln U1959%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alemannia Aachen U19Expected goals in this matchKöln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

2.05

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.11

Köln U19

2.05

Köln U19 creates 85% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 69 away

1.09

creates per match

2.01

2.10

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.09

Köln U19

2.01

allows per match

Alemannia Aachen U19

2.10

Köln U19

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par

Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Aachen U19 ↓

Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Alemannia Aachen U19 or draw

41%

Alemannia Aachen U19 or Köln U19

79%

Draw or Köln U19

80%

Winning margin

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+

7%

Köln U19 wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals

67%

Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals

30%

Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals

10%

Köln U19 1+ goals

87%

Köln U19 2+ goals

61%

Köln U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Köln U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Aachen U19 at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.10 · 58 matches

Köln U19 away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.09 + Köln U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Köln U19 attack 2.01 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more

20%

level

21%

Köln U19 scores more

59%

Köln U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Alemannia Aachen U19 0–2 Köln U19

Köln U19 beat Alemannia Aachen U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz ESV Aachen in Aachen.

Alemannia Aachen U19 vs Köln U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Alemannia Aachen U19 0–2 Köln U19