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Alemannia Aachen U19 vs Hombrucher SV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Alemannia Aachen U19
Alemannia Aachen U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Hombrucher SV U19
Hombrucher SV U19
2/28/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Alemannia Aachen U1945%
×Draw23%
Hombrucher SV U1932%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alemannia Aachen U19
1.78
Hombrucher SV U19
1.49

Alemannia Aachen U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 7 away

creates per match

Alemannia Aachen U19
1.12
Hombrucher SV U19
1.00

allows per match

Alemannia Aachen U19
1.98
Hombrucher SV U19
2.43

finishing

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par
Hombrucher SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Aachen U19 ↓

Hombrucher SV U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Alemannia Aachen U19 or draw
68%
Alemannia Aachen U19 or Hombrucher SV U19
77%
Draw or Hombrucher SV U19
55%

Winning margin

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+
24%
Hombrucher SV U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals
83%
Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals
53%
Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals
26%
Hombrucher SV U19 1+ goals
77%
Hombrucher SV U19 2+ goals
44%
Hombrucher SV U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)
58%
Hombrucher SV U19 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Aachen U19 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.98 · 58 matches

Hombrucher SV U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.12 + Hombrucher SV U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.78

Hombrucher SV U19 attack 1.00 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more
45%
level
23%
Hombrucher SV U19 scores more
32%

Alemannia Aachen U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alemannia Aachen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alemannia Aachen U19 vs Hombrucher SV U19

Hombrucher SV U19 beat Alemannia Aachen U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on February 28, 2026.