Alemannia Aachen U19 1–1 Hennef 05 U19

Alemannia Aachen U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hennef 05 U19

F. Ademi 21' (pen)

K. Cornelius 37'

11/3/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 11Sportplatz ESV Aachen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Alemannia Aachen U1947%

×Draw21%

Hennef 05 U1931%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alemannia Aachen U19Expected goals in this matchHennef 05 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.65

Alemannia Aachen U19

2.06

Hennef 05 U19

1.65

Alemannia Aachen U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 13 away

1.12

creates per match

1.31

1.98

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.12

Hennef 05 U19

1.31

allows per match

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.98

Hennef 05 U19

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par

Hennef 05 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Aachen U19 ↓

Hennef 05 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Alemannia Aachen U19 or draw

69%

Alemannia Aachen U19 or Hennef 05 U19

79%

Draw or Hennef 05 U19

53%

Winning margin

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+

27%

Hennef 05 U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals

87%

Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals

61%

Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals

34%

Hennef 05 U19 1+ goals

81%

Hennef 05 U19 2+ goals

49%

Hennef 05 U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Hennef 05 U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Aachen U19 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.98 · 58 matches

Hennef 05 U19 away — creates 1.31, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.12 + Hennef 05 U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.06

Hennef 05 U19 attack 1.31 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more

47%

level

21%

Hennef 05 U19 scores more

31%

Alemannia Aachen U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Alemannia Aachen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

F. AdemiPenalty

37'

K. Cornelius

63'

C. Catak← K. Becher

63'

L. Dang← N. Kunz

71'

Y. Selim← T. Kpegouni

82'

A. Bouakran← S. Pietrek

82'

J. Fuhrmann← N. Mofa

85'

M. Neuss← S. Sarar

88'

M. Garcia← K. Cornelius

90+1'

J. Pollmann← A. Eglenovic

Alemannia

Hennef

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: C. Wissing

71'▲Y. Selim←▼T. Kpegouni

85'▲M. Neuss←▼S. Sarar

90+1'▲J. Pollmann←▼A. Eglenovic

Alemannia Aachen U19 substitutes

SelimNeussPollmannStatovciLuabeyaSchmidtHobert

Manager: M. Lunga

63'▲C. Catak←▼K. Becher

63'▲L. Dang←▼N. Kunz

82'▲A. Bouakran←▼S. Pietrek

82'▲J. Fuhrmann←▼N. Mofa

88'▲M. Garcia←▼K. Cornelius

Hennef 05 U19 substitutes

CatakDangBouakranFuhrmannGarciaĆorićMüller