Alemannia Aachen U19 1–1 Fortuna Köln U19

Alemannia Aachen U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fortuna Köln U19

Pyo Se-Jin 43'

W. Ezami 78'

4/30/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 17Sportplatz Breiniger Berg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Alemannia Aachen U1947%

×Draw23%

Fortuna Köln U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alemannia Aachen U19Expected goals in this matchFortuna Köln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.39

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.81

Fortuna Köln U19

1.39

Alemannia Aachen U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 28 away

1.12

creates per match

0.79

1.98

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.12

Fortuna Köln U19

0.79

allows per match

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.98

Fortuna Köln U19

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par

Fortuna Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Aachen U19 ↓

Fortuna Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Alemannia Aachen U19 or draw

70%

Alemannia Aachen U19 or Fortuna Köln U19

77%

Draw or Fortuna Köln U19

53%

Winning margin

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+

26%

Fortuna Köln U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals

84%

Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals

54%

Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals

27%

Fortuna Köln U19 1+ goals

75%

Fortuna Köln U19 2+ goals

40%

Fortuna Köln U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Fortuna Köln U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Aachen U19 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.98 · 58 matches

Fortuna Köln U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.12 + Fortuna Köln U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.81

Fortuna Köln U19 attack 0.79 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more

47%

level

23%

Fortuna Köln U19 scores more

30%

Alemannia Aachen U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Alemannia Aachen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

Pyo Se-Jin

46'

A. Ivic← A. Ougandou

46'

L. Kozlyuk← G. Kachala

58'

A. Sancarbarlaz← N. Kashama

58'

Y. Yaman← L. Lützeler

72'

B. Petry← Pyo Se-Jin

76'

P. Steffens← D. Sinanoglu

78'

W. Ezami

Alemannia

Fortuna

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Se-Jin

Manager: S. Eller

46'▲A. Ivic←▼A. Ougandou

46'▲L. Kozlyuk←▼G. Kachala

72'▲B. Petry←▼Pyo Se-Jin

76'▲P. Steffens←▼D. Sinanoglu

Alemannia Aachen U19 substitutes

IvicKozlyukPetrySteffensColakStrauchYesilyurt

Manager: T. Westendorf

58'▲A. Sancarbarlaz←▼N. Kashama

58'▲Y. Yaman←▼L. Lützeler

Fortuna Köln U19 substitutes

SancarbarlazYamanKaczmarekAdenugaAltugSchwieren