Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alemannia Aachen U19 vs Borussia M'bach U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Alemannia Aachen U19
Alemannia Aachen U19
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Borussia M'bach U19
Borussia M'bach U19
11/4/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 10Sportpark am See

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Alemannia Aachen U1921%
×Draw20%
Borussia M'bach U1959%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alemannia Aachen U19
1.27
Borussia M'bach U19
2.23

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 71 away

creates per match

Alemannia Aachen U19
1.09
Borussia M'bach U19
2.35

allows per match

Alemannia Aachen U19
2.10
Borussia M'bach U19
1.45

finishing

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par
Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Aachen U19 ↓

Borussia M'bach U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Alemannia Aachen U19 or draw
41%
Alemannia Aachen U19 or Borussia M'bach U19
80%
Draw or Borussia M'bach U19
79%

Winning margin

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+
8%
Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals
72%
Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals
36%
Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals
14%
Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals
89%
Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals
65%
Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)
26%
Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Aachen U19 at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.10 · 58 matches

Borussia M'bach U19 away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.45 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.09 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.35 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more
21%
level
20%
Borussia M'bach U19 scores more
59%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alemannia Aachen U19 vs Borussia M'bach U19

Borussia M'bach U19 beat Alemannia Aachen U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark am See in Eschweiler.