Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2–0 Tampico Madero

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tampico Madero

10/7/2018

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 11Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca (Oaxaca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Alebrijes de Oaxaca42%

×Draw28%

Tampico Madero30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alebrijes de OaxacaExpected goals in this matchTampico Madero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.05

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

1.29

Tampico Madero

1.05

Alebrijes de Oaxaca creates 23% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 64 away

1.41

creates per match

0.91

1.20

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

1.41

Tampico Madero

0.91

allows per match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

1.20

Tampico Madero

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alebrijes de Oaxaca+0.00on par

Tampico Madero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alebrijes de Oaxaca ↓

Tampico Madero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw

70%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca or Tampico Madero

72%

Draw or Tampico Madero

58%

Winning margin

Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins by 2+

19%

Tampico Madero wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1+ goals

72%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2+ goals

37%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3+ goals

14%

Tampico Madero 1+ goals

65%

Tampico Madero 2+ goals

28%

Tampico Madero 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Alebrijes de Oaxaca (draw refunded)

58%

Tampico Madero (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alebrijes de Oaxaca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.20 · 124 matches

Tampico Madero away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca attack 1.41 + Tampico Madero defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tampico Madero attack 0.91 + Alebrijes de Oaxaca defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alebrijes de Oaxaca scores more

42%

level

28%

Tampico Madero scores more

30%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alebrijes de Oaxaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff