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Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Leones Negros UDG — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Leones Negros UDG
Leones Negros UDG
2/15/2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 6Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Alebrijes de Oaxaca44%
×Draw26%
Leones Negros UDG30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.42
Leones Negros UDG
1.12

Alebrijes de Oaxaca creates 27% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 134 away

creates per match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.41
Leones Negros UDG
1.04

allows per match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.20
Leones Negros UDG
1.42

finishing

Alebrijes de Oaxaca+0.00on par
Leones Negros UDG+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alebrijes de Oaxaca ↓

Leones Negros UDG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw
70%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca or Leones Negros UDG
74%
Draw or Leones Negros UDG
56%

Winning margin

Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins by 2+
21%
Leones Negros UDG wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1+ goals
76%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2+ goals
41%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3+ goals
17%
Leones Negros UDG 1+ goals
67%
Leones Negros UDG 2+ goals
31%
Leones Negros UDG 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alebrijes de Oaxaca (draw refunded)
60%
Leones Negros UDG (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alebrijes de Oaxaca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.20 · 120 matches

Leones Negros UDG away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.42 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca attack 1.41 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Leones Negros UDG attack 1.04 + Alebrijes de Oaxaca defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alebrijes de Oaxaca scores more
44%
level
26%
Leones Negros UDG scores more
30%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alebrijes de Oaxaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0–3 Leones Negros UDG

Leones Negros UDG beat Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on February 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca in Oaxaca.