Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2–2 Cimarrones: Result & Stats

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cimarrones

1/24/2024

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 3Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Alebrijes de Oaxaca42%

×Draw27%

Cimarrones31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alebrijes de OaxacaExpected goals in this matchCimarrones

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.14

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

1.37

Cimarrones

1.14

Alebrijes de Oaxaca creates 20% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 97 away

1.41

creates per match

1.07

1.20

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

1.41

Cimarrones

1.07

allows per match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

1.20

Cimarrones

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alebrijes de Oaxaca+0.00on par

Cimarrones+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alebrijes de Oaxaca ↓

Cimarrones →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw

69%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca or Cimarrones

73%

Draw or Cimarrones

58%

Winning margin

Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins by 2+

20%

Cimarrones wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1+ goals

75%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2+ goals

40%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3+ goals

16%

Cimarrones 1+ goals

68%

Cimarrones 2+ goals

32%

Cimarrones 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Alebrijes de Oaxaca (draw refunded)

57%

Cimarrones (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alebrijes de Oaxaca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.20 · 120 matches

Cimarrones away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.33 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca attack 1.41 + Cimarrones defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.37

Cimarrones attack 1.07 + Alebrijes de Oaxaca defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alebrijes de Oaxaca scores more

42%

level

27%

Cimarrones scores more

31%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alebrijes de Oaxaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff